For
immediate release: Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Survey of Hurricane Preparedness Finds
One-Third on High
Risk Coast
Will Refuse Evacuation Order
Many Could Face Shortages of Food and
Water
Most New
Orleans Residents Do Not Know Location of Evacuation Shelters
Boston, MA
--According to a new survey of people in high-risk hurricane areas conducted by
the Harvard School of Public Health Project
on the Public and Biological Security, one-third (31%) of residents
said if government officials said they had to evacuate due to a major hurricane
this season, they would not leave. This is an increase from 2006 when 23% said
they would not evacuate. The survey was conducted in eight statesAlabama,
Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and
Texasand only included residents of counties within 20 miles of the coast. The
poll included a special sample of the New
Orleans metropolitan area.
The top reasons people give for not
evacuating involve issues of safety and security.
Three-quarters (75%) say their home is well-built and they would be safe there.
Over half (56%) feel that roads would be too crowded, and slightly more than
one in three (36%) feels that evacuating would be dangerous. One-third (33%)
worry that their possessions would be stolen or damaged while one in four (27%)
say they would not evacuate because they do not want to leave their pets
(Figure 2).
Public officials need to be
concerned that the further we get from the severe hurricanes of 2005, the less
willing people are to evacuate, said Robert J. Blendon,
Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of
Public Health. Officials need to remind people that many homes are vulnerable
to major storms. They also need to ensure safe evacuation routes are available
and the public is aware of them.
These findings are based on
interviews conducted June 18 - July 10, 2007 with 5,046 adults in high hurricane
risk counties in eight states.
The results of this survey will be
distributed to state and local officials for use in emergency planning.
Evacuation and Shelter Conditions
If residents of high-risk hurricane areas have to evacuate because of a major
hurricane, most would be concerned about the conditions of evacuation shelters
if they had to go to one. The biggest worries people have are that shelters
would be unsanitary (68%), there wouldnt be enough clean water to drink (66%),
the shelter would be too crowded (65%), they would be exposed to sick people
(62%), and medical care would be lacking (58%).
Hurricane Preparations
Many residents of hurricane-prone areas have not made
critical preparations for a major storm. If running water were cut off due to a
hurricane, one in four (23%) would run out of clean water after two days, and
over half (54%) would run out after six days. If power were shut off, one in
ten (9%) would be without food after two days, and nearly half (44%) after six
days (Figure 3).
Hurricane Katrina showed that
families can get separated and communication can break down in the aftermath of
a major storm, but most residents have not prepared for that possibility. Two
in three (66%) have not agreed on a meeting place if their family is separated,
and one in two (49%) have not agreed on a phone number outside the region that
family members could call. Of those who intend to evacuate and need help to do
so (13%), half (50%) do not have that help lined up (Figure 3).
Key Preparedness Information
Past experience with hurricanes has identified some critical information that
people should know in order to be prepared for a storm. Many residents of
high-risk areas were unaware of some key information. One out of three (34%) do
not know if their home is located in an evacuation zone. Thirty-nine percent do
not know the location of an evacuation center in their community where they
could go if they had to (Figure 4).
A large majority of people would be
at risk of eating food that has spoiled due to a loss of refrigeration in a
power outage. The USDA recommends that perishable food should not be eaten if
refrigeration has been turned off for four hours. Only one in five (20%) knew
that perishable food would be safe for just a few hours. One in three (36%)
said that food is safe for up to one day, one in four (25%) said two days, and
16% said three or more days. In addition, one in five did not know that each
household member requires at least one gallon of clean water per day, the
amount recommended by the CDC.
Problems During
Past Hurricanes
Nearly one-half (46%) of the respondents in the survey live in communities that
were damaged by a hurricane during the past three years. The survey asked them
about the problems they had during these hurricanes in order to identify issues
that could be prevented in future hurricanes. The most common problem was
getting gas to evacuate (35%). Twenty percent reported they did not have enough
money at some point, 14% did not have enough water and 12% did not have enough
food. Of note, smaller numbers reported needing medical care but not getting it
(5%), getting injured (5%) or being threatened by violence (3%) (Figure 5). One area where few people reported problems was
getting the information they needed to keep themselves and their families safe (8%).
New Orleans
The survey included a sample of the New
Orleans metropolitan area to see if residents there
differed from other high-risk area residents. After their experiences during
Hurricane Katrina, most New Orleans
residents say they would evacuate for a future storm. Only 14% would not
evacuate compared to 32% of residents of other high-risk areas. Six in ten
(61%) do not know the location of an evacuation shelter if they needed to go to
one, which is significantly more than residents of other areas (38%). Despite
the dramatic images of people stranded during Katrina, over half (54%) of New Orleans residents are
confident they would be rescued if they needed to be during a future storm
(Figure 6).
It is worrisome that New Orleans, the site of one of the most severe hurricanes
in U.S.
history, has such a large proportion of people who dont know the location of
an evacuation center, said Professor Blendon. An
important priority for government and voluntary agencies should be to inform
people of the location of shelters well before a storm hits.
Even after Katrina, a substantial
percentage of New Orleans
residents are not prepared for a major storm. One-half of New Orleans residents (51%) have not agreed
on a place for family to meet if they get separated. Thirty-nine percent have
not agreed on a phone number outside the region that family members could call.
A sizable percentage of New Orleans
residents (23%) do not have more than two days of water if the water supply
were cut off.
When asked to rate the response of
government and voluntary agencies to the problems created by the last major
hurricane, 78% percent of New Orleans
residents said it was fair or poor compared to 39% of residents of other areas
damaged by a hurricane. Only 19% of New
Orleans residents said the response was excellent or
good compared to 57% in other areas.
Problems Facing Minorities and
Low-Income Residents of High-Risk Hurricane Areas
Hurricane Katrina
illustrated the additional challenges facing minorities and the poor in these
high-risk coastal areas during a major hurricane. This survey finds that
although African-Americans (73%) and Latino-Americans (71%) are more likely
than whites (59%) to say they would evacuate if government officials said they
had to leave in the event of a major hurricane, they are also more likely to
need help to do so. Seventeen percent of African-Americans and 10% of Latino-Americans
say they need help to evacuate and do not have that help lined up compared to
3% of whites (Figure 7). Low-income residents also would have more problems
evacuating than those who are better off financially. Eighteen percent of those
making less than $25,000 a year and who intend to evacuate do not have the
necessary help compared to 4% of those making $25,000 a year or more.
If minorities and low-income
residents are unable to evacuate because they do not have help, they are less
prepared to stay in their homes and weather the storm and its aftermath.
Approximately one-third of African-Americans (32%), Latino-Americans (35%) and
low-income residents (33%) say they are not prepared if a major hurricane were
to strike their community in the next six months. This compares to 14% of
whites and 19% of those making $25,000 a year or more. A greater percentage of
African-Americans (18%), Latino-Americans (11%) and low-income residents (14%)
do not have enough food on hand to last more than three days compared to whites
(6%) and those making $25,000 a year or more (8%).
Methodology
This is the 25th in a series of studies by the Harvard
School of Public Health Project on the
Public and Biological Security. The study was designed and analyzed
by researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH). The project
director is Robert J. Blendon of the Harvard School
of Public Health. The research team also includes Tami Buhr,
John M. Benson, and Kathleen J. Weldon of the Harvard School of Public Health,
and Melissa J. Herrmann of ICR/International Communications Research. Fieldwork
was conducted via telephone for the Project by ICR/International Communications
Research of Media (PA) between June 18 and July 10, 2007.
The survey was conducted with a
representative sample of 5,046 non-institutionalized adults ages 18 and over in
high hurricane risk counties in eight states. Survey participants included
residents of all counties within 20 miles of the coast in Alabama
(503 interviews), Florida (1,006), Georgia (506), Louisiana
(1,004), Mississippi (513), North
Carolina (504), South Carolina
(507), and Texas
(503). The survey included 502 residents of the New Orleans metropolitan area, where
interviews were conducted with adults from cellphone-only
households, as well from households with landline telephones.
The results were weighted to
represent the total adult population in the high hurricane risk counties of the
region as a whole. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus
2.6 percentage points; for the New Orleans-area sample, plus or minus 4.7
percentage points.
Possible sources of nonsampling error include nonresponse
bias, as well as question wording and ordering effects. Nonresponse
in telephone surveys produces some known biases in survey-derived estimates
because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population.
To compensate for these known biases, sample data are weighted to the most
recent Census data available from the Current Population Survey for gender,
age, race, education, as well as number of adults in the household. Other
techniques, including random-digit dialing, replicate subsamples,
callbacks staggered over times of day and days of the week, and systematic
respondent selection within households, are used to ensure that the sample is
representative.
The Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security
is funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through a grant to
the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO). HSPH
provides ASTHO and the CDC with technical assistance for public health
communication by monitoring the response of the general public to public health
threats.
For further information contact:
Robin Herman rherman@hsph.harvard.edu
617-432-4752 or
Todd Datz tdatz@hsph.harvard.edu
617-432-3952.
###
The complete survey and charts with
figures are available at:
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_total.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_Overall.ppt
Individual state
data:
Alabama
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_AL.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_AL.ppt
Florida
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_FL.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_FL.ppt
Georgia
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_GA.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_GA.ppt
Louisiana
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_LA.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_LA.ppt
Mississippi
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_MS.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_MS.ppt
North
Carolina
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_NC.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_NC.ppt
South
Carolina
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_SC.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_SC.ppt
Texas
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_TX.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_TX.ppt
NEW
ORLEANS DATA
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_release_2007_topline_NO.doc
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/files/Hurricane_07_Charts_NO.ppt
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